7 Reasons Why Matched Betting Is Not Risk Free

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Jen Graudenz

Hi, I'm Jen! I'm a personal finance expert and money coach aiming to help you take control of your money. I went from being broke to a six-figure net worth and am now on track to be financially independent at age 40. Discover Jen's story

Many people claim that matched betting is risk-free and advertise it as no-risk matched betting. Indeed, matched betting is a great side hustle; many people make money with it.

But matched betting is not risk free. Stating the contrary is misleading and may entice vulnerable people to lose money. To stay safe, you must know the dangers of matched betting.

🪧 Should you sign up through my affiliate links, I may receive a commission at no cost to you.

Is Matched Betting Risk Free?

The short answer is no, matched betting is not risk free. Matched betting has pros and cons, and you can lose money from matched betting in several ways.

The risk is low when done correctly, as your profits should compensate for losses. You are most at risk of losing money from matched betting when you are a beginner. You may not be familiar with the betting environment or understand everything.

Why Matched Betting Is Sold as Risk Free

Matched betting is profitable, even if you are not doing it. Many people, myself included, make money by referring people to matched betting websites.

This is affiliate marketing, and the concept isn’t bad. Yet, rather than being honest about the risks, some people lie to earn a commission. By claiming that matched betting is risk free, affiliate marketers disperse people’s doubts.

Not everyone claiming that matched betting is risk free has malicious intent. Some people don’t know about the risks. They see other people making claims and then do it themselves.

Reasons why matched betting is not risk free
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Why Matched Betting Is Not Risk Free

1. Mistakes

Matched betting mistakes can be costly and put your profit at risk. The mental damage can also be much greater, even causing you to give up on matched betting. To avoid mistakes, ensure you understand the concept. Work through Outplayed’s free tutorials and ask the support staff if you are unclear.

Looking at Outplayed’s forum and Facebook group to see common mistakes is helpful. You can ensure that you won’t make the same errors.

2. Gambling

Matched betting isn’t gambling. You will be covered regardless of the match’s outcome if done correctly. Matched betting is dead boring in this sense. Yet, being exposed to an environment that promotes gambling, you may feel tempted to gamble.

Some people are more resistant to this temptation than others. I know a few people who fell into the gambling trap (and made it back out).

Knowing that bookmakers are trying to seduce you to gamble may be enough to stop you. Remember that gambling is expected-value negative, and you will lose money over time. If you feel you are at particular risk of gambling, you may want to seek help or stop matched betting.

3. Changing Odds

Matched bettors place countless bets on an ordinary day. I sometimes had up to 50 bets open. After a while, placing bets becomes as normal as drinking a glass of water. Except when something goes wrong. Odds are volatile and change within seconds.

Such a change can occur between placing your back bet and laying it. In this case, you must adjust the lay stake to the new odds. If the odds shift was unfavourable, you have a higher qualifying loss. In the worst case, if the event starts soon and the liquidity is low, you may be unable to lay your bet. You are gambling and could lose your back stake.

Try to avoid placing bets at the last minute. I recommend leaving at least half an hour before the start of the event. You may also want to stick to well-known football events. These will have high liquidity, and the odds change slower.

Waiting a few minutes is the best action if there is still time before the event. Often, the odds will stabilise again after a while. If the odds do not change further, use Outplayed’s part-lay calculator to fix the issue.

4. Not Qualifying for a Promotion

Sometimes, matched bettors place their bets only to discover they did not qualify for a promotion. This may be due to a mistake or because the promotion changed. You may be unable to place your free bet or get your refund. If you do not qualify for a promotion, you are left with the loss of your trigger bet.

Contact the bookmaker’s live chat to chase your free bet or refund. If the bookmaker is dead set on not adhering to the promotion, there is little you can do. This is one example of losing money without doing anything incorrectly.

5. Bookmaker and Exchange Rules Differ

You may lose money due to the rule difference between the bookmaker and the exchange. This is uncommon, but it can nonetheless happen.

I once lost my back stake because a match in my accumulator was cancelled due to a water-logged pitch. (Thank you, Bury FC). The bookmaker regarded the bet as lost, while the exchange voided my lay bet.

To avoid this mistake, you could memorise all bookmakers’ terms. However, this is impractical and a waste of time. The best to do is accept that you may lose money due to rule differences.

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6. Shady Bookmakers

Not all bookmakers are legit. Despite the gambling industry being regulated, shady bookmakers find loopholes. The bookmaker may keep you from withdrawing, citing various reasons. They may say you have violated their terms or need to verify first. If it is the latter, they won’t receive your documents, no matter how often you send them.

Most times, you will get your money back, but not without arguing. You may have to involve the Independent Betting Adjudication Service (IBAS). This process can take several months. While waiting, you lose money because you don’t earn interest on the lost money. Neither can you use it for matched betting.

Another technique shady bookmakers employ is being unclear about the terms. You think you have qualified for a promotion when you have not. This confusion results in making a loss from the trigger bet.

High wagering requirements are another shady technique. If your initial bet wins, the winnings may end up in your bonus balance. Each time you place a bet, you will have a small loss from the trigger bet until no profit is left.

Outplayed has a list of bookmakers to avoid. If you plan to sign up with a less-established bookmaker, check in the forum or read reviews online.

7. Casino Offers

Casino offers can be low risk, but they have a higher risk than conventional matched betting. There are several reasons for this:

  • There are many more online casinos than bookmakers. Thus, more shady casinos make it difficult for you to withdraw.
  • Casino offers may have high wagering requirements that are not obvious.
  • Many matched bettors make the mistake of stopping halfway through an offer after a big win. This makes an offer expected-value negative and is gambling.
  • Doing one more spin after completing an offer is tempting, and you may start to gamble.

With the risk coming from so many sides, developing a clear risk-mitigation strategy is hard. The best you can do is ensure you understand the concept of casino offers.

Totally Risk-Free Matched Betting

Matched betting can also be risk free. You cannot lose money if you never deposit to bookmakers or casinos. You can still make profits from deposit-free free bets or free spins. You will make far less money from matched betting, though.

Why Matched Betting Is Not Risk Free Summary

The risk of losing money in matched betting comes from several sources, including:

  • Mistakes
  • Gambling
  • Changing odds
  • Not qualifying for a promotion
  • Different bookmaker and exchange rules
  • Shady bookmakers
  • Casino offers

Despite several risk factors, matched betting is still low risk. You will likely make much more money than you lose.

If you do not want risk, you can do no-risk matched betting by sticking to no-deposit offers. However, you will make less profit than other matched bettors. There are also numerous alternatives to matched betting to make money.

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